UPDATE 5-Rating cut puts Spain back on crisis radar
* Deficit target under question* Spanish yields rise, still well below Italy’s* New govt will struggle with EU-high jobless, need for
budget cutsMADRID, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s
credit rating on Friday, sending the euro briefly lower and
underlining the challenges facing Europe’s major powers as they
meet G20 counterparts over the euro-zone debt crisis.S&P, whose move mirrored that by fellow ratings agency Fitch
last week, cited high unemployment, tightening credit and high
private-sector debt among reasons for cutting the nation’s
long-term rating to AA- from AA.Spanish 10-year government bond yields rose
slightly in response, although they remained more than 60 basis
points lower than those of Italy and, at 5.24 percent, some
distance from the 7 percent level widely regarded as
unsustainable.”Despite signs of resilience in economic performance during
2011, we see heightened risks to Spain’s growth prospects due to
high unemployment, tighter financial conditions, the still high
level of private sector debt, and the likely economic slowdown
in Spain’s main trading partners,” S&P said.It also noted the “incomplete state” of labour market reform
and the likelihood of further asset deterioration for Spain’s
banks, and downgraded its forecast for Spanish economic growth
in 2012 to about 1 percent, from the 1.5 percent it forecast in
February.High yields on Spanish government bonds point to concerns
that it could be the next euro zone economy to require a
Greece-style bailout, and despite an unpopular austerity
programme, doubts remain that Spain will meet its deficit target
of 6 percent of GDP this year.”S&P underestimates the scope of the unprecedented
structural reforms undertaken, which will obviously take time to
bear fruit,” Spain’s Treasury said in a statement to investors
on Friday.But a senior Spanish official told the Financial Times that
meeting the 6 percent deficit target would be “difficult”. “And
if the (2011) deficit is above 6.5 percent, it’s worrying,” the
official said.S&P announced the downgrade as finance ministers and central
bank chiefs from the world’s 20 biggest economies were due to
meet later on Friday in Paris amid pressure to find an urgent
and convincing solution to the deepening debt crisis.Spanish unemployment, at 21 percent, is the highest in the
European Union, reflecting a stagnant economy, the collapse of a
decade-long housing boom and cuts aimed at taming a public
sector deficit that reached 11.1 percent of GDP in 2009.The decision to shelve multi-billion-euro privatisation
plans, mainly due to tough market conditions, has meanwhile
deprived the state of much needed revenues to cut borrowing and
left little room for manoeuvre in its public
finances.Juergen Michels, economist at Citi in London, said the
market was still wary of developments in Spain’s regional public
finances, and was aware that fiscal problems would not disappear
any time soon.JOB DILEMMAA botched labour market reform in 2010 did little to
alleviate joblessness that is concentrated mainly amongst
younger Spaniards, and a new government after November 20
general elections will be under pressure to tackle the issue.The centre-right People’s Party is expected to win the
election easily and deepen austerity measures but they have
shied away from presenting specific policy measures for fear of
eroding public support.Like Fitch, which also now rates Spain at AA-, S&P signalled
further possible downgrades for Spain, saying there was still a
risk the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy could slip into
recession next year, with a 0.5 percent contraction.The euro reached a session low of $1.3723 after the
downgrade, but later recovered to hit $1.3828 on reports the
European Central Bank was buying Spanish and Italian debt.Hopes that G20 officials would agree on the outlines of a
plan to resolve the debt crisis ahead of a European Union summit
on Oct. 23 also buoyed the shared currency, which remained on
course for its biggest weekly rally since January.Spain’s blue chip index was little affected by the
rating cut.Finance chiefs from outside the euro zone are expected to
speak frankly when they meet their European counterparts at
Friday’s G20 meeting, given impatience growing over the crisis
and its implications for the rest of the world.Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty set the tone late on
Thursday, telling reporters before leaving Ottawa that euro zone
actions were short of what was needed.On Thursday, Fitch cut credit ratings or signalled possible
downgrades for several major European banks. It downgraded UBS
<UBSN.VX, Lloyd’s Banking and Royal Bank of Scotland
. It also placed Barclays Bank , BNP Paribas,
Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale
on watch negative.